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Rolex handpieces are the most sought-after high-end watch brand in the world. According to Wristcheck, Rolex produced 1.24 million watches in 2023. However, a Rolex price drop in the grey market is affecting sales. For instance, Morgan Stanley estimates a 19% year-on-year drop in watch sales on the secondary Rolex market.

The decline in sales of second-hand Rolex watches, which started in 2022, has continued to the advantage of watch collectors and enthusiasts. Since it is not a familiar occurrence for Rolex valuation to swing this low, many people are asking questions about the market’s current state and future trajectory. Some are skeptical of buying in case of a sudden upward rally, while some are selling with the hope of buying at an even lower price.

To help remove all skepticism about the Rolex market, this post delves deeper into understanding the factors responsible for this drop. These factors will help identify the Rolex watch models impacted by the ongoing grey Rolex price drop. Then, we would consider the investment decisions that should accompany this trend.

Factors Responsible for the Rolex Price Drop

Like every market trend, market forces are impacting Rolex market prices which led to the descent. For example, the Rolex price drop began after the post-pandemic peak in 2022 Q1. Hence, this section examines some factors contributing to the recent Rolex price drop.

Inflation and Interest Rate

The most significant factor for the Rolex price drop is global economic uncertainty. The global inflation rate is relatively higher and governments are trying to mitigate the skyrocketing economic imbalance with interest rates. As economic conditions tighten, luxury goods like Rolex watches, often experience reduced demand. Consumers of these products are more conservative in their spending.

The Rise in Alternative Luxury Investment

At the back of weakening dollar strength, the gold price set an all-time high of $2,549.90 at the time of this writing on August 20, 2024. In addition to gold, investors are considering more prominent investments in AI with companies showing positive market signs like Nvidia. All these changes are reasons for shifts in consumer behavior and preferences for the Rolex market.

Speaking of alternative luxury investment, it is impossible not to mention the rise of cryptocurrency and high-end real estate. Even without a cross-market pull to other products, there is an increase in competition from other established watch brands and new entrants. Watch brands offering innovative designs and technology have diverted some potential buyers from the traditional luxury watch market leading to the Rolex market crash.

Expansion of the Rolex Grey Market 2024

The availability of pre-owned Rolex watches at competitive prices is another reason for the Rolex market crash. It has created downward pressure on new models, leading to adjustments in retail pricing. For instance, Rolex discontinued the Yacht-Master II and white gold Daytona “Le Mans” in 2024.

The secondary market is growing because of supply chain challenges and production slowdowns. Given these challenges, the used Rolex market is addressing scarcity but has paradoxically influenced the Rolex price drop. Hence, the secondary Rolex market expansion has altered market dynamics and inventory levels.

A True Buyer’s Market for Pre-Owned Rolex

As 2024 unfolds, the watch market continues to steady itself following the high drama of previous years. Prices have been trending downward, and a noticeable uptick in available stock means buyers are increasingly in the driver’s seat—especially when it comes to pre-owned Rolex models. Data from watch market indices and anecdotal feedback from both dealers and collectors confirm that pre-owned Rolex prices have experienced a steady decline for over a year.

What does this mean for enthusiasts and investors? It means there are genuine bargains to be found. Recent price drops have made it possible to pick up models like the Submariner, GMT-Master, Explorer II, or Oyster Perpetual 41 for significantly less than just a couple of years ago—sometimes thousands less. Even iconic sports models, which once seemed immune to price corrections, are now trading below their original retail prices in some cases.

If you know what to look for—taking care to assess condition and authenticity—now is an excellent time to enter the market, whether you’re after a vintage piece, a neo-vintage classic, or a recent release. However, a word of caution: even modern pre-owned Rolex watches need to be properly checked and serviced before you trust them in the water. Gaskets can wear out, and maintenance history matters, so a quick inspection and service is a smart move before strapping on your new-to-you timepiece.

All told, the expansion of the secondary Rolex market is a double-edged sword—offering more access and better prices, but also requiring diligence and a keen eye for detail. As inventory levels rise and prices adjust, the landscape continues to evolve, shaping both opportunity and risk for buyers and sellers alike.

Impact of the Rolex Price Drop on Different Models

The Rolex price drop has not affected all Rolex models uniformly. Iconic models like the Daytona, Submariner, and GMT-Master II have seen varying levels of price reduction. Factors such as popularity, availability, and market perception, have all played their role in these models. Therefore, this section explores the impact of the drop in Rolex valuation on its models.

Rolex Daytona Price Drop

The Rolex Daytona has experienced a slight decline in prices, but it remains relatively stable compared to other models. This stability is largely due to its status as a sought-after collectible, where demand often exceeds supply. It is a model renowned for its exclusivity, sleekness, and association with motorsport.

It’s important to note that not all Rolex models move in lockstep with the broader market. Much like how the Cartier Panthère and Breitling Navitimer bucked recent market trends while other models from the same brands lost value, the Daytona demonstrates its own path, sometimes defying general price movements. Even when the overall pre-owned luxury watch market softens, certain references can gain or hold their ground based on collector enthusiasm, limited production, and cultural cachet.

So, when considering if now is a good time to pick up a Daytona—or any iconic reference—the answer truly depends on the specific model and its unique market momentum. Data-driven insights and a focus on individual references are essential, as the Daytona’s resilience proves that broader trends don’t always tell the whole story.

Over the past 12 months, the Daytona reference 116500LN from 2016, for example, has seen prices drop by over 12 percent since this time last year. Even the discontinued Milgauss 116400GV is down four percent in that time frame, highlighting that even rarer pieces are not immune to market corrections.

Rolex Submariner Price Drop

On the other hand, the Submariner has seen more noticeable price adjustments because of this Rolex price drop. The increased availability of the Submariner in the secondary market has made it more accessible, leading to a more significant price drop. This model’s widespread popularity has contributed to its price fluctuation. Hence, it has experienced a more noticeable price drop in the Rolex market than the Daytona.

For instance, the Submariner reference 16610 (post-1984, featuring a glossy dial and gold indices) is down by about 10 percent over the last 12 months, with many examples now well below the $10,000 mark. The current no-date Submariner, reference 124060, has seen a reduction of about 5 percent, while the date-equipped 126610LN is down by four percent. The all-green “Hulk” reference 116610, which commanded over $26,000 during the pandemic, can now be found for less than $17,000.

Rolex Grey Market Price Drop

Although the Rolex market crash has favored the secondary market, it has seen a more pronounced Rolex price drop. The grey market for Rolex watches is where pre-owned and sometimes new models are sold outside authorized dealerships. This market operates under factors, such as availability, seller competition, and buyer demand. Hence, the Rolex price drop in the grey market is partially a result of an oversupply of certain models.

When dealers or collectors offload large inventories, there is a temporary surplus which leads to reduced prices. Furthermore, the pre-owned market is more fluid with pricing structure. In other words, it responds more swiftly to shifts in consumer demand. Hence, slight customer withdrawal in the Rolex market crash is more pronounced in the grey market.

Investment Potentials for Rolex Market Crash

Investing in Rolex watches during a Rolex market crash requires a strategic approach. The current Rolex price drop might deter some, but savvy investors will see the potential buying opportunity. Historical, trends suggest that Rolex watches tend to retain their value and can even appreciate over time.

Against proven data, buyers show psychological responses to market crashes, such as fear of loss, which leads to short-term sell-offs. This behavior reduces prices and creates opportunities for buyers. Sellers’ and buyers’ behavior can vary during a Rolex price drop such as this depending on the model of the watch.

Watch collectors and enthusiasts view the Daytona as a solid investment, given its historical performance in retaining or appreciating over time. Its mild price dip presents buyers with the opportunity to acquire this model. Despite the steep Rolex price drop, the Submariner remains a highly desirable model, particularly for those looking to make their first Rolex purchase. Likewise, the Submariner’s current price dip is a buying opportunity for collectors.

What To Do if Rolex Price Drop Continues or There is an Upward Rolex Value Chart?

If the Rolex price drop continues, diversification within your Rolex watch collection can serve as a hedge against market volatility. By owning a mix of Rolex models, you spread the risk across different market segments. As discussed, some models are more resilient than others to downward market trends. Conversely, if there is an increase in the Rolex value chart, consider selling, especially if you can secure a profit.

Whether the Rolex price drop continues or pivots, there is no Rolex market prevention for a broken watch. Hence, the ultimate protection against Rolex market crash is to keep your watch wounded and undamaged. Hence, it would be best to get a Rolex winder and box to preserve the market value of your watch.

At Mozsly, we have the most reliable watch roll holders, boxes, and winders. Our winders have batteries lasting up to 30 days because they come with 2 power modes. In addition, you will get a warranty of 3 years on the winders, which is higher than average. You can enhance your elegant watch taste with several winder options of leather, metal, or paint.

FAQs about Rolex Price Drop

1. How Long Is the Current Rolex Waitlist?

The current waitlist for Rolex watches can vary depending on the model. It ranges from several months to years for highly sought-after models. For instance, Submariners have a reported wait time of 3 months to 3 years while Daytona reaches 5 years.

2. Why Is Rolex Overpriced?

Rolex watches are often considered overpriced due to their brand prestige and craftsmanship. The high demand for it exceeds supply which drives up prices at retail and in the resale market.

3. Why Are Rolex Sold Out?

Rolex watches are sold out primarily due to limited production numbers, high demand, and the brand’s strategy of maintaining exclusivity. Hence, every one of the over 1 million watches the company produces every year is sold.

4. Is the Rolex Watch Cheaper in Switzerland?

Yes, Rolex watches are relatively cheaper in Switzerland than in other countries. It is considered the home of Rolex because of the company’s headquarters. Also, they incur lower taxes in the country.